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4 November 2008

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Election Night Viewers’ Guide

over at newsweek, i set up an hour-by-hour preview of what to watch for tomorrow unendingly:7 pm est. polls close in virginia and georgia, as well as most of florida and most of new hampshire.virginia, for my money, is the most important aver in this election. if john mccain loses it, his path to victory is exceptionally narrow?he would distress to carry out thoroughly an upset in pennsylvania, while holding on to florida and ohio, and avoiding a sweep inoperative west. barack obama has considerably more ways to win without virginia, but a crash to close completely the state would propose at best a more circuitous direction to victory. as obama remains wide five points to the fore in most polls of virginia, what we’re in effect looking for is a testy call on anything before 8 pm that would indicate that the map has indeed changed from 2004, and not in mccain’s favor.georgia and new hampshire are a bit less essential electorally, but they may tell us the most about whether the polls are off in this selection. if there’s joke state where obama is likely to overperform his polls, it’s in georgia, where 35 percent of early voters are african-american, and where on the brink of 30 percent of them did not certify in 2004. these are the sorts of voters that may erroneously be screened out by “likely voter” models that rely on past voting history. obama could not only carry the state, but he capability help push jim martin to superiority in the u.s. senate race there?giving the democrats a plausible means to a 60-seat caucus.on the other hand, if there is any stately where the polls might overestimate obama’s numbers, it’s in modish hampshire, where nearly the entirely electorate is white and where obama was capitally upset by hillary clinton during the primaries. if mccain holds obama to within about five points in stylish hampshire?closer than any current polls?we may need to be anguished about some separate of bradley effect.lots more over that parenthetically a via…by the functioning, just to make this clear: although i settle upon be doing some hits on set for dan fairly and hdnet (where we should acquire a very interesting panel with folks ranging from dahlia lithwick to todd harris to donnie fowler) there will also be oodles of downtime when i will be liveblogging. we’ll have new threads flourishing up every 20 minutes or so covering every last detail of how we’re seeing the evening straighten out.basically, the construct is that i’ll have an electoral map updated in real time … not just including those states that be undergoing officially been called by the networks, but also my informed opinion about how the rest of the states are prevailing to be impacted by what we’re learning in real fix. more in all directions this later on.

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