President Obama’s Cabinet (Version 4.0)

Last week, we discussed a little about who President-elect Obama (D) might choose as his Treasury Secretary. I suspect that will be the first cabinet post he names — given the great concerns about the economy — followed shortly thereafter by Secretary of State and Defense Secretary — given concerns about war and terrorism.

So, rather than just list names, let’s take a much closer and deeper look at the various slots from the perspective of how Obama might be looking at them as a whole and how the various candidates match-up against the competition. Also, be mindful that we’re told Obama isn’t interested in re-treads and is inclined to tap younger and very accomplished individuals.

TREASURY SECRETARY

Requirement: Someone who has real Wall Street experience — not just academia or government — and whose appointment will not further frighten the financial markets at this time, and ideally someone involved in, or familiar with, the current financial rescue plan.

Possible, but not likely: Clinton Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin (a Clinton retread); Laura Tyson (lacks Wall Street experience).

Likely: former Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers; Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner; former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker; FDIC Chair Sheila Bair.

Dark Horse: Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ).

ANALYSIS: As I discussed last week, while Summers seems to be the person that the media believes is the front-runner, I believe he will remain a valued Obama adviser, but won’t return to his old job (Summer served as Treasury Secretary during the final 18 months of the Clinton Administration). While a familiar face and someone very well respected on Wall Street, Volcker seems unlikely to be tapped and will also remain a top presidential adviser.

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I believe that Obama will tap either Geithner or Bair, both of whom have been immersed in the current financial crisis, very well-respected by the financial community, and fresh faces. Geithner, a Democrat, provided informal advice to Obama during the campaign. Bair, a Republican and a woman, would provide the bi-partisan leadership Obama promised.

Odds: Geithner 3-1, Summers 4-1, Volcker 5-1, Bair 7-1, Tyson 12-1, Rubin 15-1, Field 5-1.

My prediction is Geithner.

SECRETARY OF STATE

Requirement: Someone who shares Obama’s priorities and view of the world; experience in diplomacy, particularly with challenging or hostile foreign governments.

Possible, but not likely: Former Sen. Sam Nunn (doesn’t seem interested in returning to government); senior Clinton and Kennedy adviser Greg Craig, Sen. John Kerry.

Likely: New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson; Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN), and Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE).

Dark Horse: Former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle.

ANALYSIS: Richardson seems the most likely candidate. As a former UN Ambassador and presidential envoy, he likely has more experience negotiating with hostile foreign leaders than anyone else in the country, and he brings the added benefit of diversity to the cabinet as a Hispanic. Richardson was a very prominent Obama surrogate during the late stages of the primary (which infuriated the Clintons) and the general election. And, as a former opponent, he plays into the “team of

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