Robert g. dowd jr.
Ξ November 4th, 2008 | → | ∇ Uncategorized |
Election Prediction Open Thread
the day of reckoning is upon us, folks. without further ado, here is your official election prediction open thread.
I encourage all of you to officially submit your guestimates at kos before 1 pm.
For the record, my prediction is as follows:
60 Democratic Senate seats 40 Republican Senate seats 258 Democratic House seats 177 Republican House seats 382 Obama Electoral Votes 156 McCain Electoral Votes 52.9 Obama Popular Vote Percentage 46.1 McCain Popular Vote Percentage
My methodology was that
1) the minor party candidates would total 1% of the national individual vote. That’s about what it was in 2004. I suspect that Barr may get more votes than Nader in ‘04, but the overall percentage will be mitigated by massive turnout among the major parties, especially on the Democratic side.
2) For electoral vote purposes, Obama gets all of the states he is currently ahead in, as per electoral-vote.com, plus Georgia because of Black turnout that every pollster is underrepresenting, Missouri because Obama will win there ever-so-slightly, and he snags 3 electoral votes from one of Montana or the Dakotas.
3) For the senate, we get the easy 58 seats everybody expects, plus Al Franken wins by the seat of his pants and the aforementioned huge black turnout sweeps Jim Martin to victory in Georgia.
4) For the house, I essentially just divied up the swing districts as alotted by pollster.com as I thought they would go, but I also noticed that pollster isn’t as on top of their game on the local scene, as they currently have NY-13 as “strong republican.” So I corrected that in my estimation. For the record, I picked Massa, Maffei and Kyrzan to win.
5) For the State Senate, I think Foley and Addabbo are locks, clinching control of the senate, Zell Millers, Joe Liebermans Ruben Diaz’s, Carl Kruger’s not withstanding. I think Mesi pulls off a squeaker, Dollinger is 50/50, and one of our grassroots/netroots heroes Don Barber or Paloma Capanna pull out a victory, Darrel Aubertine-style. And Stach survives.
6) And finally, the New York City board of elections is a complete ff’n joke. I requested an absentee ballot so I could go poll-watching in a swing state, but that ballot never came. So I will stay in NYC, vote, and make calls all day. It’s sad how broken our state government is. Just another reminder will be when we vote tomorrow with voting machines that were probably around the last time NY had a Democratic Senate. Hopefully all that will change starting TOMORROW!
Who ya got?
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on November 4th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
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