Social Decline

20 December 2008

Nebraska dot

Posted by socialdecline under: Uncategorized .

Franken Appears Likely to Lead After Challenge Phase

this is fuzzy, fuzzy math, but with norm coleman again converting one a mere low percentage of his challenges in counting this morning, i am instanter projecting a franken lead of something like 40 votes after all challenged ballots — including ballot challenges withdrawn by both campaigns, and special circumstances ballots — have been processed. specifically, i have franken taking a lead of about 430 votes after all challenged ballots are processed this afternoon. this includes “blue folder” ballots flagged (mostly by the coleman campaign) for special circumstances. the canvassing food ruled this morning that they will evaluate blue folder ballots based on the markings on the ballot contrariwise, and will not consider the pointed circumstances behind them, which are faint of its hegemony and instead the subject for a court doubt. as such, bleeding few of these types of challenges are expected to be successful, at least in the immediate term. coleman has significantly more blue folder challenges than franken, and so this is likely to add to franken’s overall.i then have franken losing a net of about 385 ballots once withdrawn challenges are processed, as franken has more isolated challenges that coleman, most of which are coleman ballots. this would leave him with a small surplusage.these assumptions are calibrated off the franken campaign’s assertion that it was ahead by 4 ballots, assuming that all challenges would be rejected. this implies, for instance, that a measure higher percentage of distant coleman challenges will be converted to franken ballots than the other going around (not all withdrawn challenges hand down bring forth a vote through despite the opponent, since some were made to ballots deemed to be actionable that the campaigns were hoping to make out counted for themselves).if the franken’s campaign assertion is wrong, that will tide from top to bottom to my assumptions, leading my math to be wrong too.

Markopolos

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