Transition talk: Really got a Holdren on me
By Kate Sheppard
Ben Smith digs up two pieces from Obama’s new science adviser, John Holdren. The first, from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, titled “The Sky Is Falling,” requires a subscription (though perhaps the title says enough).
And here’s a piece titled “The Future of Climate Change Policy: The U.S.’s Last Chance to Lead,” from Scientific American in October. An excerpt:
the ongoing disruption of the earth’s mood by man-made greenhouse gases is already well beyond dangerous and is careening toward completely unmanageable. under midrange projections for remunerative growth and technological change, the planet’s ordinary surface temperature in 2050 will be about two degrees celsius (3.6 degrees fahrenheit) higher than its preindustrial value. the last time the sod was that warm was 130,000 years ago, and sea status was four to six meters higher than today. no sole knows how long it will vie with sea level to “catch up” with such an increase; it could be several centuries, or it could be less.even with uncertainties, there is rationale to believe that tipping points into unmanageable changes longing become much more probable allowing for regarding increases larger than two degrees c. to bring off a raise-than-sober-sided chance of not exceeding that figure, weak emissions must start to demur soon, falling to about half of today’s level by 2050 and favour thereafter.carbon dioxide (co2) is the most important of civilization’s emissions and the most difficult to knock down. about 80 percent comes from burning coal, oil and natural gas; most of the catch comes from deforestation in the tropics. the largest emitters in 2006 were (in descending order) the u.s., china, indonesia, brazil, russia, india, japan and germany. (numbers are not final, but china appears to have passed the u.s. in 2007.)there is no way to keep the temperature increase under two degrees c unless these big emitters start taking serious vigour almost immediately. the u.s. and the other industrial nations on the list have an obligation to place this metamorphosis. they have caused most of the buildup of gases to friend, and they have the largest per capita emissions, the greatest wealth and the most technology. and they agreed to their responsibility to hoodwink in the united nations framework convention on climate change of 1992, to which the u.s. and 191 other countries are parties.
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