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Gillibrand: The politics
There are lots of reasons to believe tonight that Albany-area Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand is Paterson’s choice tonight, and he has asked other contenders up to Albany tomorrow animation movies for a show of unity when he makes his announcement.
But it’s hard to get unity after asking 20 or so prominent politicians and public figures to parade and preen for the job for six weeks, only to reject 19 of them. That’s one of the incredibly stupid elements of Paterson’s approach. And the Caroline Kennedy fiasco has added to the bad feeling.
So, we understand, there is still a fight being waged tonight: Carolyn McCarthy, despite being warned off by Chuck Schumer, is scheduled to be on Fox tomorrow morning, and presumably will carry on her complaints about Gillibrand’s stance on gun control.
Janison, in a post below, has outlined the conservative pieces of Gillibrand’s record (esp. guns)and the family background that could make her vulnerable. Here’s the political critique, borrowed in part from a conversation with one Albany veteran today:
The only rationale for Paterson choosing Gillibrand is that she’s from upstate, and she’s a woman, and he wants that kind of ballot balance on the 2010 ticket. But, there is such anger from Cuomo, Suozzi and the rest of the delegation that a stiff primary challenge from … how many? …. is almost inevitable. They’ll line up.
Primaries split the party. In this case, because she has adopted some conservative stances to win her predominately Republican district, Gillibrand will be particularly vulnerable in a Democratic primary against opponents who have more conventional records to appeal to the base. Cuomo can beat her, Suozzi can beat her, Israel and Maloney can beat her.
So what does Paterson get? He won’t get a balanced ballot achat viagra. He’ll get a Congressional delegation that won’t help him get money from Washington to rescue the state, and an Attorney General focused on payback who can make his life miserable.
All those points are debatable. But that’s the argument.
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